40% chance to unlock

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Chris D
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:24 pm

40% chance to unlock

Post by Chris D »

Does that mean 40% every turn, or 40% to ever unlock?

When I unlock something that unlocks a lot of projects 100% of the time, they don't all appear instantly, but I think they all appear during the next two or three turns. I am not certain why they all don't just unlock at once.

But if a drive (or something) has a 40% chance to unlock, how long should I wait for it before giving up and looking for an alternate?
Two or three turns? A year or more? I know that there are some things (like "publicize alien threat") that have hidden prerequisites. Is there anything that can be done to "encourage" an unlock? I think that researching a related tech probably ought to encourage a new unlock chance.
anonusername
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:10 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by anonusername »

40% to ever unlock. There is a separate, hidden, chance to unlock each month if you pass the initial chance.
rookie.one
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:08 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by rookie.one »

Chris D wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:25 pm Does that mean 40% every turn, or 40% to ever unlock?
As anon wrote, it is 40% to unlock ever. So you are not guaranteed to ever unlock every technology.
Chris D wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:25 pm When I unlock something that unlocks a lot of projects 100% of the time, they don't all appear instantly, but I think they all appear during the next two or three turns.
Once you unlock the prerequisites for a project it has an initial unlock chance which increases every month until it hits its maximum and should that roll fail isn't available anymore. Most 100% to unlock technologies start either with a high initial unlock chance or have a high increase in increasing that unlock chance per month or both, so that you usually unlock those with in a couple of turns.
Chris D wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:25 pm But if a drive (or something) has a 40% chance to unlock, how long should I wait for it before giving up and looking for an alternate?
Drive (and Power Plant) tech is a bit different to what i wrote in the previous paragraph. Most of them (even the 100% ones) start with a lower inititial unlock chance which increases slowly to its maximum. Especially with late game fusion tech it might take months for it to unlock. My suggestion to your question here would be to look for an alternative right away and pick whatever unlocks first. All the late game drivetech is pretty similar in its performance (can propell heavy tonnage to everywhere you want with the only difference being mainly acceleration and fuel efficiency).

And then there is still the very end game option of researching tech to reset those failed unlocks.

For some more general infomation (partly outdated / not up to date with current releases) you might want to check the wiki:
https://hoodedhorse.com/wiki/Terra_Invicta/Technology
anonusername
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:10 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by anonusername »

rookie.one wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:43 am
Chris D wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:25 pm When I unlock something that unlocks a lot of projects 100% of the time, they don't all appear instantly, but I think they all appear during the next two or three turns.
Once you unlock the prerequisites for a project it has an initial unlock chance which increases every month until it hits its maximum and should that roll fail isn't available anymore. Most 100% to unlock technologies start either with a high initial unlock chance or have a high increase in increasing that unlock chance per month or both, so that you usually unlock those with in a couple of turns.
Are you sure that the "per month" roll failing can result in permanently locking out the tech? I have tried the mod which sets all techs to 100% without changing the monthly unlock rate, and certain drives take months or years to unlock, but have always seemed to unlock eventually. I haven't checked the code though, so not 100% sure.

Also, there are some drives that start out with their (very low) maximum monthly unlock chance, which seems like it would result in a dramatically lower unlock chance than the in-game percentages indicate.
Chris D
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:24 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by Chris D »

But "looking for an alternate" is not an easy or cheap thing!

Right now I feel that I have almost everything needed to take on the aliens, except an even partially suitable drive. I realize now I should have started on the drive very much earlier and prioritize drives as everything else that was researched was pretty much automatic to unlock, and drives and reactors might not. I was going to get Advanced Pulsar as my early game drive and once I got that, look for something better. But Advanced Pulsar never unlocked. It has been years. Not getting anything sooner was a bad decision.

But the situation I am now in, is that I have three drive types, none suitable. Grid, which has no combat acceleration. Dumbo, which has good Combat acceleration, but not nearly enough delta V to even be a good defensive drive. and a Pulsar drive, which has some of each, but not nearly enough of ether to be worth using in any role. I unlocked the Pulsar, and then waited WAY to long for the Advanced Pulsar. It never unlocked. I checked the other factions, and only one of them also bothered to build the Pulsar, and nobody has Advanced Pulsar available.

Once I decided (late) I need an alternate, It took much time to wait and capture a research slot and start on the tech that gives a 20% chance at Orion. After many months researching the 20K, we will each have a 20% chances to have the Orion unlock. Any other decent drive will require at least two more huge projects before it has a chance to unlock.

So what I am hearing is that I should find a candidate drive I think I could use, capture a research point and spend 30K to 50K of the worlds research working towards that drive and see if it unlocks? That sounds like a very long and painful process and I feel that I should have started that first, not last.
rookie.one
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:08 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by rookie.one »

anonusername wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:27 pm Are you sure that the "per month" roll failing can result in permanently locking out the tech?
No, I'm totally not sure about where exactly in the unlock chain something can fail to unlock (or how many negative rolls you can have), but since patch 0.3.28/29 those techs can definetely fail to ever unlock.
Chris D wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:41 pm But "looking for an alternate" is not an easy or cheap thing!
As you are looking for an early game drive, Pulsar will do. So will Lars drive or Ion/Grid drive. You don't need fancy combat acceleration for combat at that stage of the game. Early game combat is basicly floating towards your enemy and hoping for the best. Besides, even with the best early game combat drive (advanced Pulsar / Pegasus) you will probably lack the delta-v to sufficiently maneuver. Just give your ships enough delta-v to reach any position in LEO and to get back to your repair station (6-7 is probably enough but cutting it close, 12 is better, 20 is plenty) and you are good to go.

My tip would be something like build ships with Pulsar drive, and upgrade them to advanced Pulsar should it unlock. Or if by now you are further down the tech tree, equip a Lars drive and upgrade your ships once/if Fission Spinner drive or Pegasus drive unlocks.
Elaskanator
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:39 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by Elaskanator »

There are also projects, such as Forward Russia, that cannot be unlocked if another faction unlocks the pseudo-faction-tech prerequisite, such as the Restored Warsaw Pact. IMO these should just get marked as researched by every faction, since the region claims are accessible to every faction!

I went over a decade waiting for the Protium Torch Converter to unlock, and eventually cheated myself the project, because the internal chance was 8% and I was cranking 1M sci/month for a decade with literally a 1000% bonus from Foundries, which should have improved odds of getting unlocks!
anonusername
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:10 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by anonusername »

I looked at the code, and it works like so.

Each project has an initial chance to unlock for further consideration. If you fail this chance, you are out of luck.
Your chances are equal to the displayed percentage, plus the 10% Autonomous Research Group bonus (if you have it), plus the average % contribution you made to the global techs which are direct prereqs for the project. If the project has no direct global prereqs, you get no contribution bonus.

Once a project has passed the initial unlock chance, it has a % chance to unlock each month. The % chance will increase each month until hitting the project's monthly maximum unlock chance. It will then continue to roll until eventually unlocked. The rolls to unlock actually occur daily using a daily unlock chance calculated to approximate the monthly unlock % over the course of a month.
DarthVicious
Posts: 98
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2022 7:38 pm

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by DarthVicious »

anonusername wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:26 am I looked at the code, and it works like so.

Each project has an initial chance to unlock for further consideration. If you fail this chance, you are out of luck.
Your chances are equal to the displayed percentage, plus the 10% Autonomous Research Group bonus (if you have it), plus the average % contribution you made to the global techs which are direct prereqs for the project. If the project has no direct global prereqs, you get no contribution bonus.

Once a project has passed the initial unlock chance, it has a % chance to unlock each month. The % chance will increase each month until hitting the project's monthly maximum unlock chance. It will then continue to roll until eventually unlocked. The rolls to unlock actually occur daily using a daily unlock chance calculated to approximate the monthly unlock % over the course of a month.
Thank you!!
Richard Baxton held off four waves of mind worms. We immediately purchased his identity manifests and repackaged him into the Recon Rover Rick character. People need heroes. They don't need to know he died clawing his eyes out, screaming for mercy.
neilwilkes
Posts: 184
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2022 10:44 am

Re: 40% chance to unlock

Post by neilwilkes »

DarthVicious wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:25 am
anonusername wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:26 am I looked at the code, and it works like so.

Each project has an initial chance to unlock for further consideration. If you fail this chance, you are out of luck.
Your chances are equal to the displayed percentage, plus the 10% Autonomous Research Group bonus (if you have it), plus the average % contribution you made to the global techs which are direct prereqs for the project. If the project has no direct global prereqs, you get no contribution bonus.

Once a project has passed the initial unlock chance, it has a % chance to unlock each month. The % chance will increase each month until hitting the project's monthly maximum unlock chance. It will then continue to roll until eventually unlocked. The rolls to unlock actually occur daily using a daily unlock chance calculated to approximate the monthly unlock % over the course of a month.
Thank you!!
I second that - very thorough explanation & much appreciated.
For me, it's yet another example of how much the sheer randomness of some things is a strength because no 2 playthroughs can ever run out the same way
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