Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

galith
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Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby galith » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:48 pm

After playing for a while using LW Information Display (which shows vigilance for regions) I turned it off and started a campaign where I couldn't see Vigilance. Instead, I relied on a spreadsheet to give me a sense of what vigilance should be in a given region based on missions completed in that and adjacent regions and decay based on number of rebels working.

My starting region was a STR 6 and I knew a troop column should be coming up soon, which I wanted to do to knock it down to STR 5 before liberating. Based on my calculations I thought vigilance in that region should be between 12 (min) and 15 (max) 18 days after the first troop column had spawned. After spending about 20 days looking for a troop column with 13 rebels (during which time I did one supply raid in my home region but no other missions, and no liberation, supply raids, or troop columns in adjacent regions) I was very confused and decided to take a peek under the hood using lwdumpregioninfo in counsel commands, and discovered that my home region had a vigilance of 20.

To be this far off I must be fundamentally misunderstanding something about how the vigilance mechanics work. My current theory is that vigilance decay only occurs if a region has been completely quite for the requisite number of days. I had previously thought that every region loses a point of vigilance every 5 to 9 days regardless of how much vigilance was also gained during that time.

In other words, if have 8 rebels working (so vigilance decay is slightly longer than 7 days) and do a mission every 7 days than vigilance will never go down because the decay will keep getting reset by the new activity. I also believe that retaliations (which don't add to vigilance) also reset this clock and prevent vigilance decay. My evidence for this is (1) the only way my home region vigilance could have been 20 at that point is if there was at most one point of decay since the last time I had an established vigilance ceiling (when a Jailbreak Op had spawned, which mean that vigilance was at most 7); and (2) among the output of the "launch.log" file is the line "LWTrace: Updating LastVigilanceUpdateTime for [region name]" whenever a mission is complete (my theory is that this is the flag that resets the decay clock to zero).

What do others think? Does this match your experience of vigilance decay (or lack thereof)?

faket15
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby faket15 » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:57 pm

Your theory is correct.

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SonnyWiFiHr
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby SonnyWiFiHr » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:39 pm

It is correct. Wait for drop than launch missions.
I had same results when I rushed . Clock stop ticking if you finish mission before vigilance drop
On other hand I got vigilance drop delayed . Can't explain why clock was ticking in that period
Timelapse:
5th 3 x mission
8th no vigilance drop
10th 3x mission
15th vigilance drop. 10 or more rebels. Can't drop that fast
The Preacher

Kamikaze Samurai
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby Kamikaze Samurai » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:23 pm

Remember also that vigilence in a given region can be increased by things you do in other regions.

Liberating a province generates a big vigilence boost in connected areas and a small boost globally. I'm pretty sure that destroying a troop column can also increase vigilence in nearby areas.

The LW2 information display is fantastic and I think you will be happier if you leave it on.

My current campaign is the first in which I truly understand how all this works and now the strategy layer is all about managing vigilence.

Some of the rescue/extraction missions will only occur in regions of low vigilence so I have deliberately delayed HQ missions because the resulting vigilence increase could deprive me of the opportunity to get a scientist or engineer from an adjacent region.

Holding off on the HQ missions in also keeps the local high vigilence on the board which is kind of a double-edged situation. On the plus side it is slowing the Avatar project, but high global vigilence also gives the aliens their Super Emergency Reinforcement UFOs.

Another reason I have held off on liberating a province is that it is Siberia (New Arctic), and will soon be isolated by my liberation of East and West Asia. Since the current Advent strength is only 3 it will become a juicy honey pot to attract UFOs.
They will want to reinforce it because of the high vigilence to strength ratio and can only do it with a UFO since all overland routs will be cut off.

Edit to add one more good reason to delay HQ missions. You can kill up to 5 legions with each liberation, so doing it with an AS of 4 or less is a missed opportunity.

My current strategy is 100% recruit in new regions to build them up and let the vigilence drop until I have between 10 - 13 members, then go full intel with a scientist advisor and try to complete Liberation 1 - 4 consecutively, boosting if necessary. Once the HQ is on the board I remain on full intel and kill as many UFOs and troop columns as I can until it hits AS 5, then go in for the kill.

My goal is to win only after accomplishing planetary liberation, so it is absolutely critical to kill as many legions as possible.

faket15
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby faket15 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:22 pm

Kamikaze Samurai wrote:Another reason I have held off on liberating a province is that it is Siberia (New Arctic), and will soon be isolated by my liberation of East and West Asia. Since the current Advent strength is only 3 it will become a juicy honey pot to attract UFOs.
They will want to reinforce it because of the high vigilence to strength ratio and can only do it with a UFO since all overland routs will be cut off.


Sorry to burst your bubble but UFOs don't work like that. The best possible scenario gives each UFO around 30% chance to go to this region, but any realistic scenario will not give you much more than 10%.

PS: when I say best possible scenario I really mean it. I'm talking about a situation when every other region on the map has Strength at least 2 points higher than Vigilance, the region where you want the UFO is the only non-liberated region with Lib2 complete, there are no Facilities anywhere and the regions with the Blacksite, Forge and Psi Gate are connected to only one region each.

Psieye
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby Psieye » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:29 pm

Bear in mind vigilance is only one factor in determining how much Str a region wants. Additional weights modify the overall desired Strength. A region surrounded by liberated regions is going to want 2x connections extra legions on top of vigilance. More if GP site and/or Facility and/or radio tower.
Previous 1.5 Commander campaign for the 8-man GOp squad.
The current one.

faket15
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby faket15 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:45 pm

Psieye wrote:Bear in mind vigilance is only one factor in determining how much Str a region wants. Additional weights modify the overall desired Strength. A region surrounded by liberated regions is going to want 2x connections extra legions on top of vigilance. More if GP site and/or Facility and/or radio tower.


He is talking about farming UFOs, not Supply Raids. UFOs don't care about about adjacent liberated regions or radio towers and they stop counting vigilance at STR + 4.

Kamikaze Samurai
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby Kamikaze Samurai » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:11 am

I'm aware that there is no sure thing.
I'll leave that HQ there with a continuous small chance of attracting UFOs until liberating it fits in with my global strategy.

The point I was trying to make is that timing the final liberation mission is a critical factor in managing both vigilence and global Advent strength.

The effect this final act of liberation has on the availability of certain missions in other regions is not exactly obvious or intuitive.

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SonnyWiFiHr
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby SonnyWiFiHr » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:53 am

Mission per week is enough to maintain vigilance (day + or -) .
The Preacher

Kamikaze Samurai
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby Kamikaze Samurai » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:01 pm

Now I'm wondering if there might be a flaw in my plan.

The UFO drops reinforcements in the province it lands and also an adjacent province.

But if all connected areas are liberated it becomes impossible to place half of thr reinforcements.

Does anyone know if this will prevent the UFO mission from being generated in that area?

faket15
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby faket15 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:11 pm

Kamikaze Samurai wrote:Now I'm wondering if there might be a flaw in my plan.

The UFO drops reinforcements in the province it lands and also an adjacent province.

But if all connected areas are liberated it becomes impossible to place half of thr reinforcements.

Does anyone know if this will prevent the UFO mission from being generated in that area?


You can still get UFOs even if the area is isolated. I don't have any idea about what happens to the extra legions. I don't see anything in the code that prevents them from going to liberated regions, but I only took a quick peek.

Kamikaze Samurai
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby Kamikaze Samurai » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:28 pm

Thanks for checking that out for me.

Kamikaze Samurai
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Re: Confused by Vigilance Mechanics

Postby Kamikaze Samurai » Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:49 pm

Faket 15's post that details reinforcement machanics is also something that I am factoring in here.

Leaving the regions with facilities and golden path sites undisturbed will cause them to stop asking for reinforcements at deterministic strength levels.

Once that happens the chance of UFOs being directed to regions where I am actively looking for them will increase substantially.

This necessarily allows some progress of the Avatar project, but it's only at 4 in the beginning of August after 2 liberations and one skulljacking.


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