Reaper and Muton Combatives

[mudhut79]

So I had a network tower go bad (shinobi got spotted a fair way from the objective) and things got a bit sticky. Couple of soldiers took wounds, could easily die to another hit. Had a Muton Elite that needed to be controlled - Aha! Why not channel my inner XWynn and combative-lock him with Jane "Siren" Payne, sword shinobi? Sounds good. But planning out the rest of the turn, that would leave two Najas uncontrolled. That's a recipe for two dead soldiers - need a better plan...

Wait - I once saw XWynn use Reaper on a Muton, because the first strike is guaranteed 100% to hit and that will bypass the Muton's melee parry. If Jane kills the Muton Elite, she can reaper chain through the sectoid commander to the two Naja. She has my one and only Fusion blade, even with the damage dropoff she should still be able take care of them all. Let's do it!

With a wild scream (the Payne Siren, obviously) Jane runs across the map, leaps into the air and scythes down the Muton Elite - who parries, counter attacks for lots of damage and stuns her.

RIP Gunnery Sergeant Jane "Siren" Payne. Lucky it wasn't a squadwipe actually.

So help me out here team:
1. Am I crazy or did anyone else see XWynn use Reaper to kill a Muton (first strike 100%)?? I think in his case it was a Muton, not Muton Elite, if that matters - but I don't recall the Muton being disoriented or anything like that.
2. What exactly are the odds of a Muton/Centurion/Elite parrying? Maybe XWynn just got lucky or something. [Also, maybe it was still the right play to send Jane despite a parry chance.... trying to find comfort in my grief obviously!)
3. While I am here, can the initial 100% to hit reaper strike end up a graze? Just something I have wondered about previously.

This is post 1.5 if that matters (don't think it does)

Regards
Mudhut

[Steelflame]

The attack can't miss. Doesn't bypass dodge.

Mutons have about a 50% chance for combatives dodge to be enough to block a melee attack. You CAN attack them. Its just risky.

Just a tip, the way Combatives works is that when you would get hit, if the attack would either miss or graze, you will instead counterattack, while if it would hit or crit, the attack goes through. The dodge bonus decays for each blocked attack that turn.



I heavily recommend getting the Perfect Information for Long War 2 mod, it makes those hit/graze/miss numbers directly visible to you, so that you know that you have about a 50% chance to hit that muton, a like 5% chance to crit, and a 45% chance that he'll slap you instead.

[TrainInVain]

Pretty sure that the first swing of a reaper attack can graze.

Mutons are the fun police to rampaging shinobi. Seems like the muton elites are also very resistant to sting grenades.

[mudhut79]

Thanks Steelflame and TrainInVain

Can I test I have understood correctly - You are saying Reaper just sets (for first attack only) the base chance to hit to 100%, then all subsequent dice rolls (crit/dodge etc) proceed as per normal. Have I got that right? Previously I thought that guaranteed hits (and guaranteed misses, for instance via untouchable) completely bypassed the normal to-hit dice rolls.

Interestingly, I believe Jane actually had >100% base to-hit on that Muton (favourable NCE/HP + sword perks) so did using Reaper actually *decrease* her chances of hitting him? If so that's... counter-intuitive... to say the least.

Also Steelflame you say "Mutons have about a 50% chance for combatives dodge" does anyone have the exact stats? I presume it scales up with M1/M2/M3 is all.

[Steelflame]

Thanks Steelflame and TrainInVain

Can I test I have understood correctly - You are saying Reaper just sets (for first attack only) the base chance to hit to 100%, then all subsequent dice rolls (crit/dodge etc) proceed as per normal. Have I got that right? Previously I thought that guaranteed hits (and guaranteed misses, for instance via untouchable) completely bypassed the normal to-hit dice rolls.

Interestingly, I believe Jane actually had >100% base to-hit on that Muton (favourable NCE/HP + sword perks) so did using Reaper actually *decrease* her chances of hitting him? If so that's... counter-intuitive... to say the least.

Also Steelflame you say "Mutons have about a 50% chance for combatives dodge" does anyone have the exact stats? I presume it scales up with M1/M2/M3 is all.

Reaper makes your first hit ignore the to hit rolls entirely, which is purely in your favor, as to hit over 100+graze band is pointless. After that, all that rolls is the dodge and crit rolls as they compete against eachother.

In the case of your fleche on a muton, you end up with like 10-45 crit competing with the muton's combatives dodge. IIRC, it is somewhere around 60-80, scaling with muton, mostly just to match the growth of your weapon/perk crit chance. Lets assume 45% crit vs the 80 dodge, just to show what is happening.

From here, there are two favorable outcomes for you, and 1 negative.

You can crit at about a 9% chance (.20*.45). You can hit at about a 47%(.8*.45+.2*.55) chance. The remaining 44% of the time you'll graze, which triggers the Muton's combatives, blocking the hit and letting him hit you instead. Its fairly accurate to what you would have run into in game, although I don't know exactly where the hard stats are in the .ini to tell what the Muton's combatives dodge is.