Evasive Maneuver chances?

[Thrair]

So, I got the UFO Hunt dark event earlier, and didn't really have the resources to deal with it. It spawned with little infiltration time and was listed as swarming, so I had to suck it up.

Last night, the UFO caught me, despite my attempts to scan in other areas away from it. Evasive failed and it proc'd defence. Since I had work in about 20 mins, I closed the game and decided to it later.

Today, I loaded up the geoscape autosave and my game crashed (first one for Long War, seems quite stable). But, again evasive failed.

Booting the game back up, it again caught me and failed evasive. I was partially irritated at the crash, but it did pique my curiosity that all three failed to evade. I made a save at the mission start and then booted up the autosave to see if I could get a successful evade. No dice after 10 loads.


I'm thinking either the roll to determine evasion is made BEFORE the UFO catches you.... or there's a bug/feature in the evade chance. However, I'm not certain enough to make a bug report about it, but figured I'd ask anyone else if they've gotten a successful evade after getting caught.

[trihero]

One of the fundamental things about xcom 2 is that rolls are determined and saved at a certain point; for instance you'll notice no matter how times you load a 99% shot that misses, the same exact shot will keep missing. It's to try to deter you from "save scumming."

[Thrair]

Aye. I know. Why I said either it's a possible bug or the roll is made BEFORE it catches you.

[mattprice516]

In my experience the result of the interception (evade or catch) does seem to be determined when the ufo initially spawns. Can't be 100% sure about it ofc, but that matches my own testing.

[dstar3k]

One of the fundamental things about xcom 2 is that rolls are determined and saved at a certain point; for instance you'll notice no matter how times you load a 99% shot that misses, the same exact shot will keep missing. It's to try to deter you from "save scumming."

That's... not entirely accurate.

Psuedo-random number generators (which are the only thing a computer has unless you've got some sort of radioactive random number generation card installed (note: as far as I'm aware those don't actually exist, barring any specialized equipment the NSA might (okay, almost certainly) have)) are a purely deterministic mathematical algorithm; given the same starting value (the seed), the exact same sequence of numbers will be generated. Xcom2 saves the seed, so if you take a shot at the beginning of a turn, miss, and reload the autosave, the shot will always miss, because the next number generated will always be the same.

However, if you have a unit with a higher chance to hit, and you have _them_ fire, they might hit, if the generated number was high enough.

[ShockmasterFred]

Both my wife and I have put hundreds of hours into XCOM 2, never once have either one of us evaded the UFO on the first hunt. After having done an Avenger defense, it seems to be about 50/50, but I'm pretty sure that first time is automatic. (Any devs know for sure one way or the other?)

[Izzy]

In the campaign I am running right now, I evaded the first (and only so far) UFO hunt. So its definitely possible
I'm playing on second difficulty if that makes the evasion easier.

[code99]

I too evaded the first ufo they sent after me so far so its possible

[NephilimNexus]

Funny thing in vanilla is that the UFO catching you has nothing to do with how often you move the Avenger around. Case in point, I had one game where, as an experiment, I got the "UFO hunting" dark event and tried just waiting it out by having the Avenger sit in place and do nothing for the entire month.

It didn't work - UFO still attacked it.

Other times, of course due to the RNG lunacy, I've gone on world tours during that event and had no ill effects. It's pretty silly.